I said a couple of months ago we won't be able to tell where we are until the end of September, after 10 matches. I still believe that to true, however after 5 matches in the league, it's worth a brief reflection at half term.
Positives
+ early indications of a return to a passing/possession game
+ 8 points from 5 matches
+ performed well against promotion contenders
+ strong defence
+ the identification of players appears better
+ some good performances by the u23 players
Negatives
- Struggling to create enough opportunities
- Struggling to score enough goals
- Struggling to recruit
- Missing key roles in the team
- Lacking squad depth and coverage
It worth reflecting on the goals and creation of opportunities. These are issues that have been around for some time.
We need to create at least 7 goalscoring opportunities per half for a total of about 14 per match. Currently we tend to convert about 1 in seven opportunities, so that would give us a good chance of scoring 2 goals per game. Sometimes our conversion is down to 1 in 10 sometimes as high as 1 in 5, so 14 opportunities is at least what we need to target, other teams are achieving this and more.
As as a result we aren't scoring enough goals, if we wanted to be play off candidates we should have scored 9 goals by the end of Millwalls match, we have currently scored 5. Relegation contention levels of goal scoring would mean scoring 6 goals by the end of Millwalls match!
On the plus side we have only conceded 4 goals which is better than play off level, and our points to date are better than our underlying performance should achieve. Which is both good and bad news.
So after 10 matches where do we need to be to see how we stand:
Points
--------
<10 Relegation
10 Relegation candidates
12/13 Mid table
=16 Play off candidates
20 Automatic Promotion candidates
To get into the play off category, we will need to have scored about 15 goals and conceded no more than 10.
Overall Assessment - Working hard, managing to maintain performance, but needs to focus on key issues, if intending to fulfil potential and rise to the top of the class!