Promotion Chances

26 games played and we are on 36 points.
20 games to play !!!!
Any chance of promotion ??
According to the last 10 year stats 90 points gains automatic promotion & 73 points gets you in the play offs.

So in theory we need 54 points from the next 20 games for automatic promotion (Unlikely but can be done) 18 wins out of our next 20 games !! Can't see it happening .
To get a chance in the play offs we need another 37 points from 20 games !!!
So 13 wins out of 20 will get us in the play offs .
 10 wins and 7 draws & 3 losses will also get us in the play offs 
 It can be done 

Comments

  • I was confident of the play offs at the start of the season, probably overly so

    I'd happily take 8-10th now but, it can be done. Just need to stick with a settled side, making changes when required rather than rotating for rotation sake but more importantly stick to 4-2-3-1 and not five at the back. Hopefully today's result will give the boys a massive boost for 2019
    MarkG
  • Best predictor of form for the rest of the season - and with the same players - is the first 26 games
    That says we will get just under 70 points and miss out on the play offs by 5 or 6 points
    I'd take that at the moment
  • i think we will be much smarter after transfer deadline
  • The record so far is the same for home and away 5w 3D 5l and people say we’re inconsistent  :D
  • Well we cut the gap to 6th place to 7 points yesterday and the gap to 7th place to 3 points.

    Boro and Derby sitting in playoff places 7 points ahead have a 5 game tough run of fixtures. We will have a good idea after the next 5 games whether we, or others, can challenge them for those play off spots. I am hopeful but realistically I think we will end up top 10

    We got 32 pts 1st half of season and would need 42 plus points to get there. 3 games into it we only have 4pts. We may see the improvement required to get from 32 to 42 in the 2nd half of the season given all the new players and the ability to improve during the season but ...
  • I would say Boro is the most catchable. While they have a superb defense they have only scored 28 goals in 26 games so if they get a few games where the opposition gets a lucky goal or two they could drop points.

    Next 5 games
    Boro
    BHam(a), Millwall(h), Bristol City(h),  WBA(a), Leeds(h)
    Swans
    Preston(a), Sheff Utd(h), BHam(h), Bristol City(a), Millwall(h)

    Make up 4 points in those games and maybe we have a shot along with Forest and others chasing
  • Play the best eleven every game with players in their preferred positions if possible and we stand a good chance.

    Hopefully the Reading game will have been an alarm call for Graham and he'll stop Pottering© around.
  • Always felt we'd nick a play off place but, all depends IMO on the following

    1) keeping the youngsters Rodon, Roberts, DJ, Grimes, Celina and Oli and not merely selling for the Americans to make easy dollars
    2) ensuring we never play 5 at the back (at least from the start) and encouraging the oppo onto us 
    3) get the best out of Jeff, Routs and Dyer
    4) buy (or loan) a quality defensive midfielder shield type player who also is very comfortable on the ball

    Not to much to ask ;)  
    MarkG
  • @SVJack I will take No 4 on loan with an already agreed price to buy in the Summer if we want him permanent
  • I think if we finished 7th or 8th then we shouldnt be disappointed, when you consider what Potter has had at his disposal.

    I'd take that IF we keep the kids, and he is given a proper budget to fix the gaping holes in the squad.

    I think we'd be in big trouble if we went up. Would I turn it down? No. But I'd worry, because I just dont see Potter being given the cash to get players in that would be good enough for the PL that season. 

    I think any players he brings in will be players he will need to develop, who are below, or just below that level.
    BigG
  • He needs another season or two in the championship to shape & develop this squad, that is if he's given the opportunity to do this by the club owners.
    if not I think Potter will be off to pastures new I'm afraid & I do think he is a very good coach, so if backed properly he'll do well.
  • I'd say we need to turn over quite a few players at the end of the season - a good 5 or 6
    Then when these have  been replaced with genuine GP signings we'll have a better idea where we are
    For the record Routs is out of contract and recent form suggests he might get another year
    I would expect Bony Narsingh Carroll Fer and maybe Nordfeldt to be off
  • I think that we are in a similar position to where we were in the first Championship season under Roberto - the makings of a decent team but needing refinement.

    Interesting that of the squad who got to and won at Wembley there were certain players who played regularly in 2008-09 - De Vries, Rangel, Ash, Monk, Tate, Leon, Joe, Gower, Orlandi, Pratley and Dyer - pretty much the defence and midfield that took us up.

    There were others that fell by the wayside - Painter, Tudur-Jones, Bauza, Butler  - while others ostensibly went on to better things (or not) - Scotland, Gomez, Bessone. Meanwhile others came in - Taylor, Dobbie, Borini and most notably Sinclair who probably had the greatest season of his career.

    The point being that it can take a couple of seasons and a bit of juggling to build a decent team even if many pieces of the jigsaw are already in place.


    Jackareme
  • Garbo said:

    I think that we are in a similar position to where we were in the first Championship season under Roberto - the makings of a decent team but needing refinement.

    Interesting that of the squad who got to and won at Wembley there were certain players who played regularly in 2008-09 - De Vries, Rangel, Ash, Monk, Tate, Leon, Joe, Gower, Orlandi, Pratley and Dyer - pretty much the defence and midfield that took us up.

    There were others that fell by the wayside - Painter, Tudur-Jones, Bauza, Butler  - while others ostensibly went on to better things (or not) - Scotland, Gomez, Bessone. Meanwhile others came in - Taylor, Dobbie, Borini and most notably Sinclair who probably had the greatest season of his career.

    The point being that it can take a couple of seasons and a bit of juggling to build a decent team even if many pieces of the jigsaw are already in place.


    Good points, but there are also major differences between now and then.

    Not since Kevin Reeves have we had anyone to identify the right talent. The jury is still out on Macaulay and co.

    Even if we had that right, I think it's fairly obvious the manager doesn't have the final say, like Roberto did. He knew when to tell Big Nose to butt out.

    This core of this team is nowhere near the quality of that 2007-11 crop of players. I'm sorry, but it's just not. 

    Perhaps more intangible but still very important - the club is not united in the same way. Back then, board down to the tea lady were all pulling in the same direction. Not anymore. 
  • We have to win 3 out of 5 games from now to end of season to be in playoffs. Our performances are there, Wigan tactical screw up aside.

    Next 5 games us and Middlesboro have 3 games the same. Any hickups in Boro's low socring attack or low conceding defence may see us close the gap by 2 points.

    Their other 2 games are WBA & Leeds. Potential losses for them. We have Preston(a) Sheff Utd (h). If we can cut that 7 point gap to say 2 over the next 5 games then we are well and truly in the hunt for the final third of the season
  • What promotion will bring in May is that not only will HJ’s position be strengthened, but the Yanks will cream themselves just thinking about the financial benefits they will be able to get their hands on yet set aside paltry returns for player recruitment.
    No thanks.
  • We are not geared up for a promotion push and that's a fact
    What we are is mid table entertaining but easily bullied by the more physical teams in the league
    We don't have as much footballing ability as the Martinez/ Rodgers team
    Fulham are finding that even after spending £100m there is no guarantee you won't go straight back down
    But GP needs the younger pro's to get more game time and learn to manage games better, and you only get that by learning from mistakes
    Not this year and next year only if the best of the youngsters are joined by some more seasoned Championship players
    Not sure our owners will invest though
  • we're not playing Birmingham now, as we have a cup game to play  B)
  • I would like us to stay within grasp of a play off spot till the end as it brings added excitement and fun for the fans. Mid table with nowt to play for will be pretty boring I think.. 
    PaulTBigG
  • Amazing, Jenkins mentions promotion in his programme notes and all hell breaks lose. The times people say to me, we don't want to go up this year, we're not ready, its the same ones who said it in 2011.
  • Jollyboy,
    if you are talking about the squad that achieved promotion to the PL in 2010/11 you are way off in comparing that squad to what we have now.
  • This squad is a million miles from being good enough for the premier, there would be next to no money for strengthening, any money found will come from the sales of our best players, we wouldn't stand a chance!
  • There is a lot of daylight nowadays between the top 6 and the rest of the PL
    The PL divides into 3 now - the top 6 the mid table 6-  8 and the bottom 6-8

    The top 6-8 of the Champ would compete better if they had the PL TV money of the bottom 6-8 but Fulham are showing that spending £100m does not always do it
    You now have a 2 division gap in quality between the top 6 and the Championship
    Make that 3 divisions in our case as we are bottom half at the minute
  • There were 3 divisions in the PL when we first joined the club and we didn't do too bad
  • True but Everton are spending hundreds of millions and failing to cross the great divide to the top 6 - still solidly mid table so the gaps are getting bigger
    Transfer fees and wage levels tell you where you are finishing mostly though
    When we bucked the trend under Laudrup we shopped in a part of the Spanish market which does not exist any longer - relatively low fees and players known to the manager
    We also had a playing philosophy from Roberto which has now gone
    If we can get our playing style back while growing some good youngsters that is as good as we can do under these owners
    If we had Russian billionaire owners like Bournemouth maybe it would be different but we would still need a manager with exceptional contacts to get much out of the transfer market
    WE are not that smart any longer , we are just recycling  HJ's worn out old contact list instead
  • Jollyboy,
    if you are talking about the squad that achieved promotion to the PL in 2010/11 you are way off in comparing that squad to what we have now.
    I agree with that but like any team we’d have to strengthen, the point is, we’d be ready, we’d have to be
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