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When Potter Goes ,The sequel !

So that it then folks, The press today are saying Potter is now asking the owners of Swansea for a view on their long term plans, I gather he is not hearing what he needs to to even consider staying here.  further talks are due today/ 

This should be a litmus test for all swans fans.  Its a no brainier ,if the owners have the clubs best interests at their core, they will give Potter what he is asking for, i doubt he will be asking them to break the bank, he is just not that type of guy. He will be asking for a reasonable level of support.

Now with the TRUST  saying if Potter goes it will be devastating for our clubs future. its over to the owners.  and i for one wont be holding my breath that they try to keep our guy.   after all they will get a cool £2 million for the FUND! I am so glad i dont put any money into these vultures pockets.  the old share holders who put us here should hang their heads in shame

Comments

  • I wouldn't change tact, if the pot is bare then the pot is bare, the last thing we should do is spend what we haven't got. Loosen the purse strings slightly, take the odd calculated risk but not to the extent that we are in danger further down the line.
    Wyn
  • jollyboy said:
    I wouldn't change tact, if the pot is bare then the pot is bare, the last thing we should do is spend what we haven't got. Loosen the purse strings slightly, take the odd calculated risk but not to the extent that we are in danger further down the line.
    Jollyboy, you have fallen for the pure crap spotted by the owners,  in 7 years in the prem our income was over a billion ponds. I am yet too see where it all went.  also Potter will be modest in his demands, and frankly if after all the success we have had we cant keep a manager  such has potter because we cant afford him  WELL ITS TIME TO GIVE UP 
  • bigoak said:
    jollyboy said:
    I wouldn't change tact, if the pot is bare then the pot is bare, the last thing we should do is spend what we haven't got. Loosen the purse strings slightly, take the odd calculated risk but not to the extent that we are in danger further down the line.
    Jollyboy, you have fallen for the pure crap spotted by the owners,  in 7 years in the prem our income was over a billion ponds. I am yet too see where it all went.  also Potter will be modest in his demands, and frankly if after all the success we have had we cant keep a manager  such has potter because we cant afford him  WELL ITS TIME TO GIVE UP 
    I love when people insist we should have tens of millions just lying around because we were in the PL. Living in a fantasy world where football clubs make money.
    bigoak
  • bigoak said:
    jollyboy said:
    I wouldn't change tact, if the pot is bare then the pot is bare, the last thing we should do is spend what we haven't got. Loosen the purse strings slightly, take the odd calculated risk but not to the extent that we are in danger further down the line.
    Jollyboy, you have fallen for the pure crap spotted by the owners,  in 7 years in the prem our income was over a billion ponds. I am yet too see where it all went.  also Potter will be modest in his demands, and frankly if after all the success we have had we cant keep a manager  such has potter because we cant afford him  WELL ITS TIME TO GIVE UP 
    bigoak,
    have you ever wondered why nobody joins you on the 1st tee when you are waiting there for somebody to join you.

    Income from the PL era was far less than a billion pounds, and have you visited the 2 training grounds that didn’t sprout up instantly when the club played in the PL but had to be paid for. 

    How do you know that GP will be modest in his demands and as for keeping a manager did you say the same thing when Roberto, Souza and Brendan left.

    Have we all of a sudden become a club that can keep managers let alone players or are you just another dreamer who fail to understand the rationale of balancing the books.

    In your case you gave up a long time ago to play golf but no doubt you follow the club on your pc or tv while still criticising fans who have different opinions to yourself.
  • Sound move by GP, he wont expect the earh but he knows we need strengthening if we are to progress.

    We need to act like we want to win the Championship next season, and Norwich didnt need to break the bank to do it and neither do we but we need the ability to bring in players in key positions and replace anyone who leaves (from the first team).

    Cash will be the problem with some big player contracts still to be paid off, even if they leave. So to be able to strengthen we will probably need to bring fees and reduce salaries (from PL players leaving) If we can get £15m for DJ, the salaries for the key players are about

    Wilf £4.5m
    AA  £4.0m
    JA  £2.5m
    BB £3.0m

    So thats a total of £29m with transfer fees  from the older players on top, and still a few other players who may well move LF, MO, LN, JM, TC. So thats about £7m-£9m in salaries. So we could end up with about £7m in headroom with zero transfer fees.

    Even if we only average £1m transfer fee per player, which would be the very poor end of the scale, that would mean we end up with £16m headroom to bring players in. If GP and Kyle are as good as I believe they actually wont need all of that to improve our squad.

    If GP cant get guarenteed support from the club, and now is the time of maximum leverage he will have with the club, then wedo have big problems
    bigoakWyn
  • Optimistic maths as always.
  • Is Optimistic Maths a different type of Maths?

    I learnt mine in the old school using real numbers. Happy to discuss if you have any different numbers but they are based on published data for salaries using the lower numbers as a preference.
  • It might help if the basics were understood. I'm amazed at how many posters still reference Bony in next year's dealings. As of the end of this season, he is no longer a Swansea City player, unless we take up the one year extension, which is extremely unlikely.
  • Thats why Im only counting Wilf’s salary, all transfer fees are a bonus but proposing receiving £9m in transfer fees when we might get almost half from one of our players alone, isnt exactly overestimating.
  • deekay said:
    It might help if the basics were understood. I'm amazed at how many posters still reference Bony in next year's dealings. As of the end of this season, he is no longer a Swansea City player, unless we take up the one year extension, which is extremely unlikely.
    Also, do we still owe cash to the clubs we bought the Ayews and Baston off. We should also be looking to get a fee off both Montero and Carroll when we offload them, even Kyle Naughton or Dyer. Fer and Olsson are at the end of their contracts and will go for free.
  • Depends when their contracts/fees were amortised, Colin.

    I suspect if we offload most for around 4m - except Andre who we should look at doubling at least - then we would have nothing owing, and maybe even a small profit on those players.

    If we can get more, then it will offset monies owing on the likes of Clucas and Mesa.
    bigoak
  • oh, and plenty of reports now, that as any potential Potter has hit buffers, they are now looking at Wilder from Sheff Utd.

    Dont see him leaving his hometown club in a hurry - unless their Osama Bin Laden financing causes them a major headache! 
  • Is Optimistic Maths a different type of Maths?

    I learnt mine in the old school using real numbers. Happy to discuss if you have any different numbers but they are based on published data for salaries using the lower numbers as a preference.
    We won't get all of the "published salaries" off the books for the Ayews and Baston unless we're very, very lucky, for a start. And DJ won't be £15m cash in the bank. £10m plus £2m in future clauses sounds more likely, with a few % to Hull in solidarity payments. 

    Clubs at this level don't have £7m "headroom", let alone £16m, without owners plunging themselves into debt. All very optimistic.
  • bigoak said:
    So that it then folks, The press today are saying Potter is now asking the owners of Swansea for a view on their long term plans, I gather he is not hearing what he needs to to even consider staying here.  further talks are due today/ 

    This should be a litmus test for all swans fans.  Its a no brainier ,if the owners have the clubs best interests at their core, they will give Potter what he is asking for, i doubt he will be asking them to break the bank, he is just not that type of guy. He will be asking for a reasonable level of support.

    Now with the TRUST  saying if Potter goes it will be devastating for our clubs future. its over to the owners.  and i for one wont be holding my breath that they try to keep our guy.   after all they will get a cool £2 million for the FUND! I am so glad i dont put any money into these vultures pockets.  the old share holders who put us here should hang their heads in shame
    So bigoak from where do you gather he is not hearing what he needs to ?

    Also how do you know what he needs to hear (have you played golf with him recently!!)?

    And finally why wouldn't he seek assurances about the future plans at Swansea?
  • oh, and plenty of reports now, that as any potential Potter has hit buffers, they are now looking at Wilder from Sheff Utd.

    Dont see him leaving his hometown club in a hurry - unless their Osama Bin Laden financing causes them a major headache! 
    The bigger issue is that their two owners are at war (sound familiar?) and no one knows what their approach is going to be in the Prem. They'll be living paycheque to paycheque until its sorted and someone takes full control. Could see the whole summer go by without managing to do much meaningful business.
  • jasper_T said:
    Is Optimistic Maths a different type of Maths?

    I learnt mine in the old school using real numbers. Happy to discuss if you have any different numbers but they are based on published data for salaries using the lower numbers as a preference.
    We won't get all of the "published salaries" off the books for the Ayews and Baston unless we're very, very lucky, for a start. And DJ won't be £15m cash in the bank. £10m plus £2m in future clauses sounds more likely, with a few % to Hull in solidarity payments. 

    Clubs at this level don't have £7m "headroom", let alone £16m, without owners plunging themselves into debt. All very optimistic.
    Jasper_T The salaries are the baseline salaries excluding bonuses et al. So the included salaries are lower than players actually get paid  You have a fair point on Ayew, but less of a point on Baston. Where a stronger line should be taken. Opinion on both sides

    You seem to be aiming for cash neutrality, I havent spoken about cash neutrality  as the timing issues negate any likelyhood of that happening. We will make a loss for the season just gone and probably a lower loss for the coming season but within allowable limits. the benefits kick in 2019/20 and 2020/21.

    If you want cash neutrality this season we will buy no new players and probably will need to sell 2 players in addition to DJ with no replacements. At which point GP wont be here and we will be in Andrew2 Cassandra territory, and no good manager would want to come.

    However we dont need that to create a reasonable amount of salary/ transfer headroom.

    We can all set up a false set of assumptions to skew the outcome to what we want them to be, as you have quoted. What I was illustrating is an achievable case, there is an upside and a downside from there. 

    Clubs at this level do have headroom if they are still on parachute payments, but remember that entails selling DJ plus 9 high salary players and buying 4 young talents at far cheaper prices and salaries, not easy but achievable.

    The test will be if GP stays or not. With the right help I believe he can get us promoted next season and it doesnt need to cost the earth. That is the point Im making
    Wyn

  • Clubs at this level do have headroom if they are still on parachute payments, but remember that entails selling DJ plus 9 high salary players and buying 4 young talents at far cheaper prices and salaries, not easy but achievable.
    So as I said, optimistic maths.
  • Not sure how that make the Maths Optimistic..... Perhaps Optimistic that we can be organised enough to get the transfers done.

    However we do have the Birch to make it happen!
  • I tend to prefer optimistic in most things ,thankfully.
    SpringheeledJack
  • I’m optimistic that GP signs a new deal all the prem brigade are sold off and only DJ sold from the current playing squad with one or two additions and my glass will be completely full ... not half ...
    Chris_Sharman
  • bigoak said:
    So that it then folks, The press today are saying Potter is now asking the owners of Swansea for a view on their long term plans, I gather he is not hearing what he needs to to even consider staying here.  further talks are due today/ 

    This should be a litmus test for all swans fans.  Its a no brainier ,if the owners have the clubs best interests at their core, they will give Potter what he is asking for, i doubt he will be asking them to break the bank, he is just not that type of guy. He will be asking for a reasonable level of support.

    Now with the TRUST  saying if Potter goes it will be devastating for our clubs future. its over to the owners.  and i for one wont be holding my breath that they try to keep our guy.   after all they will get a cool £2 million for the FUND! I am so glad i dont put any money into these vultures pockets.  the old share holders who put us here should hang their heads in shame
    So bigoak from where do you gather he is not hearing what he needs to ?

    Also how do you know what he needs to hear (have you played golf with him recently!!)?

    And finally why wouldn't he seek assurances about the future plans at Swansea?
    Hi Chris,  Not going to divulge , but has the saying goes " If you want to predict the future look at the history" It is obvious what he wants to hear Chris, That is he will be able to strengthen his squad and wont have the rug pulled from under him in the transfer out market. Dont understand your last question , fact is he obviously would .
  • All conversations about offloading the expensive deadwood almost always, naturally I suppose, move to acquisition of players once it is done. The real hammer blow will be if they turn out to be deadwood as well and we are discussing how to get them off the books in 2 years time. I am happy to be regarded as a big fan of Potter. What he has done with what was at the club is pretty impressive. But, even after a pint and a prozac, I couldn't say our acquisitions under his tenure have blown me away. I suppose it goes back to the same old riddle of who is actually choosing players?
  • All conversations about offloading the expensive deadwood almost always, naturally I suppose, move to acquisition of players once it is done. The real hammer blow will be if they turn out to be deadwood as well and we are discussing how to get them off the books in 2 years time. I am happy to be regarded as a big fan of Potter. What he has done with what was at the club is pretty impressive. But, even after a pint and a prozac, I couldn't say our acquisitions under his tenure have blown me away. I suppose it goes back to the same old riddle of who is actually choosing players?
    What was at the club was pretty impressive. But no one gave them a chance, and many still insist that without Potter they'd be nothing.
  • We are in a much stronger position this summer than last, at the moment, IMO.

    We have Birch at the helm. His knowledge and proven acumen at turning around these situations is miles ahead of who we had in charge of things last summer - and I dont just mean Jenkins.

    We have just let several big earners off the books, which were draining the finances.

    In Birch we have a man with contacts and negotiating skills to move the other big earners Ayews, Borja, probably Jeff, on. Probably TC too. And I think there will be takers for all of them.

    He will also maximise values for DJ and VdH if they do not sign new deals. And they must be sold if they dont. We cannot be under any illusions, that selling players is a must in these circumstances, and would have been the same if we had remained in the PL. We cannot afford to do what Arsenal did with Rambo.

    Where we become weaker is if Birch cannot persuade Potter to stay. And that is the key. 

    Besides his managerial skills, he is the reason for players to sign new contracts. Not ask for transfers. And attract new players to the club.

    He goes, and we are as bad, or if not worse off than last summer.


    Chris_SharmanJackareme
  • @Mark_Jack_London For me you are spot on with your summary. A reasonable start lets hope this continues over the Summer.

    If we are so f8nancially constrained, and it feels like Trevor Birch has a grip, then can we also move Mr Pearlman on. It would be the 8cing on the cake
    Mark_Jack_London
  • Agree with @Mark_Jack_London and @SpringheeledJack. Getting Pearlman off the books is a must. Offering zero value 
    Jackareme
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